This storm will need its own category when we are through with it due to its hybrid qualities of both a hurricane and nor’easter.
The worst thing I’m seeing and hearing is the NWS having trouble putting the correct type of warning out there. Because the sustained wind speeds are coming in like a tropical storm, they really can’t issue hurricane warnings without breaking protocol. What this doesn’t get across is that 24-36 hours of 60mph winds are far more destructive than 3-6 hours of 80-100mph winds (like a traditional hurricane). I’m getting a horrible false sense of security from most people I’ve seen in stores, especially the phrase, “Meh, that’s what they said about Irene.” Everyone needs to realize this is a completely different type of storm than Irene last year. This has the ability to reshape places like Cape May, Wildwood, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, Seaside, Pt. Pleasant, and Sandy Hook.
This is going to be a very bad storm both at the shore and inland. Along the ocean, there will be a 5-10 foot storm surge that will be most threatening during high tide (at least 2-3 high tides in a 24-36 hour period), especially during the full moon. Coastal residents need to GET OUT. As far as inland residents go, power outages are expected for up to 7-10 days. If you are on high ground, you can expect rain and wind. If you live inland near places that have poor drainage you are likely to flood as 6-12 inches of rain could fall between now and Wednesday. Conditions will vary from location to location in NJ but for the most part, the entire state will be affected in some way from rain and wind.
So with all this being said, I beg you to get off the barrier islands & coastal regions of New Jersey for this storm. I’m talking from Cape May to Sandy Hook. If you live near the ocean in these areas, GET OUT! IT COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH. This is not coming from a weather media outlet. This is coming from someone who grew up in the area and knows the severe weather potential very well. PLEASE LISTEN TO ME ON THIS! With almost all major I-95 corridor cities affected by this, emergency personnel will have a hard time getting to you should you need their assistance due to the amount of emergencies that will arise. It might be too late to call 911 at that point, especially if your phone does not work. Thanks for listening and considering my plea for your safety,
Jonathan Carr
Severe Weather Analyst
EPAWA/SevereNJwx
