- May 13, 2014
- 7,081
- 11,625
I firmly believe that come April 24th the announcement from Varsity will be a cancellation announcement.
While Disney World falls under our idiotic state governor, it also falls under the local officials of Orange County and they are not playing around. Excluding South Florida, which is its own hot spot, Orange and Osceola Counties have been the leading voices of reason in Central Florida. There has already been fodder about Disney [all major tourist attractions in Orange/Osceola County] being closed through the summer from local government officials, though it hasn't been officially confirmed by Disney yet. Disney did just furlough their remaining workforce which has further pushed the notion that this is going to be a longer closure than imagined.
Social distancing is working in some areas and the curve has begun to flatten. But if we re-wind our tapes back roughly 100 years we know we've already been in this spot before. While we call it the 1918 Spanish Flu, the majority of the deaths actually occurred in 1919 after the second wave hit. Globally we lost 50 million people, in the US we lost roughly 675,000.
We have also known about coronavirus' since the 1960s, we had our first outbreak of SARS in 02-03 and MERS only a few short years later. We still, to date, do not have a single vaccine for any known coronavirus strain. I highly doubt we're going to figure one out now and even if we do, it's still 12-18 months from now. The most recent studies coming out of China also raise alarm bells on whether or not herd immunity can even be achieved (cliffnotes, of the 175 people analyzed after recovering from COVID-19 roughly 1/3 of them showed little to zero immunity to the disease). Then, you have to look at the studies who are focusing on the mortality rate in re-infected patients. Simply put, we don't know nearly enough about this disease to really plan much in the future yet and with every country/state forming their own plan it's going to be hard for any sports organization to find a way in when they're juggling what A is doing versus B versus C and on and on and on.
I don't expect social distancing to go away anytime soon and I'm already preparing for the reality that I may very well be 'teacher' again come fall. I don't want to be, but it doesn't seem like we'll be snapping back to 'normal' anytime soon and when we finally do, it'll be nothing like the 'normal' of 2 months ago.
While Disney World falls under our idiotic state governor, it also falls under the local officials of Orange County and they are not playing around. Excluding South Florida, which is its own hot spot, Orange and Osceola Counties have been the leading voices of reason in Central Florida. There has already been fodder about Disney [all major tourist attractions in Orange/Osceola County] being closed through the summer from local government officials, though it hasn't been officially confirmed by Disney yet. Disney did just furlough their remaining workforce which has further pushed the notion that this is going to be a longer closure than imagined.
Social distancing is working in some areas and the curve has begun to flatten. But if we re-wind our tapes back roughly 100 years we know we've already been in this spot before. While we call it the 1918 Spanish Flu, the majority of the deaths actually occurred in 1919 after the second wave hit. Globally we lost 50 million people, in the US we lost roughly 675,000.
We have also known about coronavirus' since the 1960s, we had our first outbreak of SARS in 02-03 and MERS only a few short years later. We still, to date, do not have a single vaccine for any known coronavirus strain. I highly doubt we're going to figure one out now and even if we do, it's still 12-18 months from now. The most recent studies coming out of China also raise alarm bells on whether or not herd immunity can even be achieved (cliffnotes, of the 175 people analyzed after recovering from COVID-19 roughly 1/3 of them showed little to zero immunity to the disease). Then, you have to look at the studies who are focusing on the mortality rate in re-infected patients. Simply put, we don't know nearly enough about this disease to really plan much in the future yet and with every country/state forming their own plan it's going to be hard for any sports organization to find a way in when they're juggling what A is doing versus B versus C and on and on and on.
I don't expect social distancing to go away anytime soon and I'm already preparing for the reality that I may very well be 'teacher' again come fall. I don't want to be, but it doesn't seem like we'll be snapping back to 'normal' anytime soon and when we finally do, it'll be nothing like the 'normal' of 2 months ago.
